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He’s back and he’s looking to get fired.
After a late-season injury, Broncos running back Bradley Chubb ended the 2020 season with 7.5 sacks, leaving many Broncos country people lukewarm about his performance. While sacks are obviously very important on the defensive end of the ball, it might not be the best way to assess the performance of an individual NFL passer.
With multiple outside factors playing a role in the overall production of an NFL rusher, the Broncos’ new improved defense should help Chubb on the 2021 season stats sheet.
As a player, it’s easy to see why Chubb was so popular to come out of the 2018 draft. He’s tall, he’s quick and he’s physical. What makes him such a good soccer player is the combination of his natural abilities with his technique, allowing him to win in a number of ways.
At 6’4 “and 269 pounds, Chubb is huge and can play at his height, winning with power. With heavy hands and the technique to win with a multitude of moves you typically see from some of the best power rushers in the world. league, it is a load to be managed.
Forgot that room… Bradley Chubb flattens Isaiah Wynn with his long arm. Mean. pic.twitter.com/KV0HcPXKbB
– Joey Richards (@JRDrafts) July 17, 2021
While Chubb may win with bull runs, long arms, and clubs, he’s not just a one-ride pony. He can most certainly win with speed, attacking the outside hand of offensive tackles to get onto the pitch. He is by no means a Von Miller level speed rusher, but don’t let brute strength and size fool you; Chubb is very athletic and will win in a variety of ways.
Ultimately that makes him a very complete passer and a very difficult matchup for the majority of the league’s offensive tackles.
Unfortunately, fans and analysts often use the season’s sack totals to determine the quality of a passing runner for that year. By doing this, one would be missing out on how many other outside factors play a role in the bag total. While he frequently shows some of the best assisters in the league, this is just a bit of context that should be used in a group of many to find who actually is the best.
For Chubb, he had 12.5 sacks his rookie year and 7.5 sacks the year before. On the surface, it’s understandable that some think he just didn’t perform as well, but on closer inspection, other issues seem to have caused production to drop.
For example, he received exceptional attention from opposing offensive coordinators. While Malik Reed isn’t bad, he’s not exactly someone you need to stop.
Bradley Chubb is fucking good. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the #Broncos‘ defense.
Will probably be looked at with some desire because even though he plays the 2nd most valuable position in football he is not a QB.
Also because bags are a bad metric but w / e pic.twitter.com/Qote6nntOQ
– Nick Kendell (@NickKendellMHH) January 20, 2021
As the graph above shows, Chubb’s double-team rate was extremely high and especially staggering compared to his colleague, Reed.
Next season, Miller’s return should help considerably, ultimately freeing Chubb with more one-on-one opportunities. The last time Chubb and Miller saw the field together was during Chubb’s rookie season where he had 12.5 sacks. If Miller returns to full health in 2021, it could be one of the scariest passing duos in the league, which will make things easier for the whole defense.
A good secondary can make a pass rush look good, while a good pass rush can make a secondary look legendary as well. When the two work together, you usually have a dominant defense.
New general manager George Paton has made it his duty this offseason to improve high school after last year’s injury-ridden squad did not perform as expected. Now, with a new improved group at the back of Vic Fangio’s defense, Chubb should be able to come home at a higher pace as the quarterback may be forced to hold the ball a bit longer.
The difference between getting a sack or just a squeeze could be a fraction of a second. For example, despite the 5-sack difference between Chubb’s rookie year and last year, he had the exact same number of quarterback presses at 57.
While there might not be perfect stats for evaluating a passing runner, focusing on sacks leaves out a ton of context. Most bags are not even given to the player who was responsible for the bag. Often a player who is under rapid pressure will cause another player to be fired.
This type of analysis happens quite frequently, which leads many players to be overrated or underestimated by the masses.
Ultimately, producing an NFL passer bag depends a lot on the team around it. There are really hundreds of ways that the opposing team or the team around you could limit the chances of a passing forward hitting a sack.
With what appears to be a much improved defense around Chubb, he should have a jump in sack production this season. And that will also make the defense more lethal.
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