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The commercial counter (NASDAQ: TTD) investors are understandably optimistic about the future of the company. Under founder and CEO Jeff Green, stocks have exploded since his 2016 Initial Public Offering at $ 1.80 (adjusted for the split) and are now trading above $ 75, offering investors returns of 4000%.
In a digital advertising industry controlled by the walled gardens of Alphabet, Facebook, and fast growing Amazon, The Trade Desk has carved out a niche as an independent provider for a transparent and open internet. But that doesn’t mean The Trade Desk isn’t paying attention to its competition – and Amazon’s recent results may have indicated a huge opportunity.
Image source: Getty Images
The next trade desk opportunity is a ‘sleeping giant’
In a recent blog post, The Trade Desk discussed the desirability of advertising in digital retail media. Digital advertising has so far mainly focused on points of sale with a large “inventoryâ€, ie web pages; large publishers like the New York Times, Walt disneyESPN, etc., are seen as preferred places for brands to market their products.
However, The Trade Desk draws attention to the opportunity that many advertisers overlook on e-commerce sites, calling it the sleeping giant of the marketing industry.
In the post, The Trade Desk noted:
- The 16th largest website by traffic in the United States is Walmart.
- Amazon’s first-quarter report showed 77% year-over-year growth in its “other†unit, which is made up primarily of advertising services.
- Retail media is expected to grow from $ 20 billion to $ 50 billion over the next five years, according to MediaLink.
The takeaway is quite clear. Brands should spend more advertising money on generic websites to pay for better product placement or sponsored ads on e-commerce sites. The closer the ads are to the buying process, the more value they will bring to all stakeholders in the process, including buyers. And if an ecommerce site is looking to compete with Amazon, it will need to offer brands the ability to market as effectively as Amazon sponsored product placement.
More effective marketing at the “tip of the buying spear” will help brands better manage “cookiegeddon”. Apple has already banned third-party cookies (3PC), while Alphabet ends the practice in 2023.
Banning 3PCs will lower retargeting – when a product you don’t buy stalks you on the internet – and limit the effectiveness of digital advertising campaigns. Brands can compensate for the decline by advertising more effectively “in-storeâ€, that is, on e-commerce sites.
See it as a lever for further growth
One thing I look for in my investments is optionality, and The Trade Desk has it in spades. The company continues to benefit from mobile and desktop advertising, as marketing investments follow the defecting eyes of radio and print media.
While The Trade Desk will continue to have less market share than Facebook and Alphabet, digital advertising is not a win-win market. For those looking to advertise outside of these walled gardens, the 3PC replacement based on Unified ID 2.0 option is expected to gain share from publishers looking to collect more data from their visitors.
In the short term, it will likely be The Trade Desk’s Connected TV (CTV) business that drives revenue. Even TV executives are hedging their bets on subscription cable and seeing significant growth in viewership in ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) streaming services.
Last year, Fox corporation acquired AVOD streamer (and UID 2.0 partner) Tubi for $ 440 million and promised it would be a billion dollar business. ViacomCBSPluto TV’s free AVOD is growing at around 80% per year and is expected to generate $ 1 billion in full-year revenue by 2022.
Expensive stock, but worth it
The biggest risk for Trade Desk investors is its expensive valuation. Currently, the shares are trading at 35 times sales, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 144. growth stocks, the company will need to continue to show strong revenue and profit growth to satisfy investors. Otherwise, those high multiples could quickly collapse.
So far, the company seems to be handling the pressure well. The Trade Desk recently released second quarter results, revenue growth of 101% and diluted EPS of 100% compared to the corresponding period last year. As the recent blog post shows, The Trade Desk has several growth levers to tap into to keep its revenue growing rapidly.
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John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of the board of directors of The Motley Fool. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of the board of directors of The Motley Fool. Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of the board of directors of The Motley Fool. Jamal Carnette, CFA owns shares of Amazon and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool owns shares and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, The New York Times, The Trade Desk and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: January 2022 long calls at $ 1,920 on Amazon, long calls at $ 120 in March 2023 on Apple, short calls at $ 1,940 in January 2022 on Amazon, short calls at $ 130 in March 2023 on Apple and short calls at $ 46 in October 2021 on The New York Times. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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